Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Public Service Announcement (interlude) 35.5%
Next is Izzo (H.O.V.A.) at 8.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Public Service Announcement (interlude)35.5%38%35.5% fair36¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 4 h ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Public Service Announcement (interlude)35.5%Kalshi 38%(35.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Public Service Announcement (interlude)
35.5%
38%
35.5% fair
36¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Public Service Announcement (interlude)
35.5%
Kalshi 38%(35.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Public Service Announcement (interlude)
- Last price
- 38%
- Fair, margin removed
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $25K
Izzo (H.O.V.A.)8.4%9%8.4% fair4¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Izzo (H.O.V.A.)8.4%Kalshi 9%(8.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Izzo (H.O.V.A.)
8.4%
9%
8.4% fair
4¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Izzo (H.O.V.A.)
8.4%
Kalshi 9%(8.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Izzo (H.O.V.A.)
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $8K
Empire State Of Mind4.7%5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 4 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Empire State Of Mind4.7%Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Empire State Of Mind
4.7%
5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Empire State Of Mind
4.7%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Empire State Of Mind
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $24K
Umbrella4.7%5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 4 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Umbrella4.7%Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Umbrella
4.7%
5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Umbrella
4.7%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Umbrella
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Girls, Girls, Girls3.8%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Girls, Girls, Girls3.8%Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Girls, Girls, Girls
3.8%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Girls, Girls, Girls
3.8%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Girls, Girls, Girls
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Heart Of The City (Ain't No Love)3.7%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Heart Of The City (Ain't No Love)3.7%Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Heart Of The City (Ain't No Love)
3.7%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Heart Of The City (Ain't No Love)
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Heart Of The City (Ain't No Love)
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Holy Grail3.7%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Holy Grail3.7%Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Holy Grail
3.7%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Holy Grail
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Holy Grail
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Lucifer3.7%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Lucifer3.7%Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lucifer
3.7%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lucifer
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lucifer
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $346
Run This Town3.7%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Run This Town3.7%Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Run This Town
3.7%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Run This Town
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Run This Town
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Suit & Tie3.7%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Suit & Tie3.7%Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Suit & Tie
3.7%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Suit & Tie
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Suit & Tie
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Big Pimpin'2.8%3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Big Pimpin'2.8%Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Big Pimpin'
2.8%
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Big Pimpin'
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Big Pimpin'
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
Crazy In Love2.8%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 4 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Crazy In Love2.8%Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Crazy In Love
2.8%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Crazy In Love
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crazy In Love
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Dirt Off Your Shoulder2.8%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 4 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Dirt Off Your Shoulder2.8%Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Dirt Off Your Shoulder
2.8%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Dirt Off Your Shoulder
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dirt Off Your Shoulder
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Ni**as In Paris2.8%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 4 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Ni**as In Paris2.8%Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Ni**as In Paris
2.8%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Ni**as In Paris
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ni**as In Paris
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Numb / Encore2.8%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 4 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Numb / Encore2.8%Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Numb / Encore
2.8%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Numb / Encore
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Numb / Encore
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $5K
99 Problems1.9%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)99 Problems1.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
99 Problems
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
99 Problems
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 99 Problems
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Clique1.9%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Clique1.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Clique
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Clique
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Clique
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Drunk in Love1.9%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Drunk in Love1.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Drunk in Love
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Drunk in Love
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Drunk in Love
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $545
Otis1.9%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Otis1.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Otis
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Otis
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Otis
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $785
Song Cry1.9%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Song Cry1.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Song Cry
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Song Cry
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Song Cry
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Why I Love You0.9%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Why I Love You0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Why I Love You
0.9%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Why I Love You
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Why I Love You
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $257
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Variety, the New York Times, Jay-Z's Official Website
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Public Service Announcement (interlude)
- Izzo (H.O.V.A.)
- Empire State Of Mind
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Jay-Z's halftime opener?". Public Service Announcement (interlude) leads at 35.5%. Next is Izzo (H.O.V.A.) at 8.4%. $96K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 15, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More culture markets
See all culture markets- New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?March 31, 20275.2%$31.1M traded
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?Spider-Man: Brand New Day95.5%$17.9M traded
- Oscar for Best Picture?The Odyssey58%$11.3M traded
- Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · WinnerEzra Frech58%$5.8M traded
- GTA 6 release date?Before January 202899%$4.3M traded
- Who will be the next James Bond?Callum Turner74%$3.2M traded