The Prediction Markets

Jensen Huang rejoins NVIDIA by...?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$163K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

December 31, 2027 16.5%

Next is SpaceX / xAI at 8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31, 2027
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceX / xAI
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
SpaceX / xAI
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Kalshi
AMD
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
AMD
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Intel
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Intel
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oracle
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oracle
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SoftBank
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
SoftBank
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$818
Trade this on Kalshi
Tesla
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tesla
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
TSMC
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
TSMC
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2026
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Apple
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Apple
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$986
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
OpenAI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
November 30, 2026
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Microsoft
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Nvidia newsroom, AMD newsroom, Tesla official website

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2027
  • SpaceX / xAI
  • AMD

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
—
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31, 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jensen Huang rejoins NVIDIA by...?". December 31, 2027 leads at 16.5%. Next is SpaceX / xAI at 8%. $163K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

On November 12, 2026, NVIDIA announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as its President, Chief Executive Officer, and a member of its Board of Directors, effective immediately. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within the corporate or governance structure of NVIDIA between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying roles include employment, executive, officer, director, formal advisory, or governance positions at NVIDIA, including on an interim or acting basis and membership in a body formally responsible for governing or overseeing the company. A role within a subsidiary or controlled entity of NVIDIA will also qualify. Merely holding or trading NVIDIA shares, voting as a shareholder, entering into a commercial or research partnership with NVIDIA, informally advising, appearing at NVIDIA events, or receiving an honorary or emeritus title will not qualify unless Jensen Huang also accepts or begins a formal role within NVIDIA’s corporate or governance structure. An official announcement that Jensen Huang has accepted a qualifying role will be sufficient, regardless of when he formally begins serving in that role. The primary resolution source will be official information from NVIDIA (including its filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) or Jensen Huang; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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