The Prediction Markets

Merriam-Webster Word of the Year 2026 contains...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 57 days
Traded
$66K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Looksmaxxing 23%

Next is Agentic at 19%. The venues differ most on lore (Polymarket 3.3%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.3-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Looksmaxxing
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Looksmaxxing
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Agentic
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agentic
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
rot
17.7%
Polymarket 17.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $461 (4.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
rot
Last price
17.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21.7¢
Sell Yes
13.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$461 (4.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
maxx
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
maxx
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
agent
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
agent
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
larp
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
larp
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
larping
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
larping
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
vibe
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
vibe
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$995
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vibe
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Semiquincentennial
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Semiquincentennial
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$828
Trade this on Kalshi
slop
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
slop
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
bait
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
bait
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$817
Trade this on Polymarket
rage
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
rage
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
AI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
lore
1.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
lore
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lore
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Brainrot
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brainrot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Performative
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Performative
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Merriam-Webster
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Looksmaxxing
  • Agentic
  • rot

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Looksmaxxing for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Merriam-Webster Word of the Year 2026 contains...?". Looksmaxxing leads at 23%. Next is Agentic at 19%. $66K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 Word of the Year announced by Merriam-Webster contains the specified string of letters. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified string must appear, in order and without interruption, within the Word of the Year as officially announced. Capitalization, spaces, hyphens, and punctuation will be disregarded when determining whether the string appears (e.g., "rage bait" contains "rage"). The string may appear anywhere within the Word of the Year, including as part of a larger word. Only the word or phrase officially named as the 2026 Word of the Year counts. Shortlisted words, runners-up, or other words highlighted in the announcement will not be considered. If more than one word or phrase is officially named as the 2026 Word of the Year, this market will resolve to "Yes" if any of them contains the specified string. If Merriam-Webster does not announce a 2026 Word of the Year by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Merriam-Webster; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets