The Prediction Markets

Michigan Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.80M 92%

Next is Above 4.10M at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.80M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.80M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.10M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.40M
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.40M
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$953
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.70M
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70M
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00M
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00M
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.30M
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.30M
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6M-4.8M
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $329 (3.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.6M-4.8M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30.4¢
Sell Yes
29.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$329 (3.29x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.60M
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.60M
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.8M-5M
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.8M-5M
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.6M+
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $490 (4.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.6M+
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.4¢
Sell Yes
17.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$490 (4.90x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
4.2M
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $442 (4.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.6¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$442 (4.42x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.90M
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.90M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.10M
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.10M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.40M
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.40M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.70M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.70M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
4.4M-4.6M
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.4M-4.6M
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
5M-5.2M
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
5M-5.2M
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.4M-5.6M
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.4M-5.6M
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2M-4.4M
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2M-4.4M
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.2M-5.4M
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.2M-5.4M
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.80M
  • Above 4.10M
  • Above 4.40M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.80M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan Senate Election: Turnout". Above 3.80M leads at 92%. Next is Above 4.10M at 92%. $43K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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