The Prediction Markets

Microsoft (MSFT) closes week of Oct 19 at ___?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 19 hours
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

520-$530 47.5%

Next is 510-$520 at 44%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
520-$530
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
520-$530
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Polymarket
510-$520
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
510-$520
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
500-$510
40.7%
Polymarket 40.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
500-$510
Last price
40.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78.9¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
540-$550
40.6%
Polymarket 40.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
540-$550
Last price
40.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
480-$490
34.7%
Polymarket 34.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
480-$490
Last price
34.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
490-$500
34.4%
Polymarket 34.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $146 (1.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
490-$500
Last price
34.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$146 (1.46x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
550-$560
28.9%
Polymarket 28.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $174 (1.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
550-$560
Last price
28.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$174 (1.74x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
530-$540
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
530-$540
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket
560-$570
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
560-$570
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
570
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
570
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
480
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
480
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 520-$530
  • 510-$520
  • 500-$510

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Microsoft (MSFT) closes week of Oct 19 at ___?". 520-$530 leads at 47.5%. Next is 510-$520 at 44%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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