The Prediction Markets

Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$45K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bonnie Crombie 48.7%

Next is Carolyn Parrish at 22.4%. The venues differ most on Carolyn Parrish (Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 27%), a 3.5-point gap.

Bonnie Crombie 48.7%Carolyn Parrish 22.4%Alvin Tedjo 18.8%Aamir Bhatti 0.9%Amjad Jilani 0.9%12 others 8.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bonnie Crombie
48.7%
Polymarket 53.5%(49.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 51%(46.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bonnie Crombie
Last price
53.5%
Fair, margin removed
49.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bonnie Crombie
Last price
51%
Fair, margin removed
46.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 51¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 55¢.

Carolyn Parrish
22.4%
Polymarket 23.5%(21.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 27%(24.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carolyn Parrish
Last price
23.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carolyn Parrish
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

Alvin Tedjo
18.8%
Polymarket 20.6%(19% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%(18.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 22.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $450 (4.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alvin Tedjo
Last price
20.6%
Fair, margin removed
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22.2¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$450 (4.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alvin Tedjo
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
18.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$828
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 19¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

Aamir Bhatti
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aamir Bhatti
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Amjad Jilani
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amjad Jilani
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Ana Luisa Vasquez De Espinal
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ana Luisa Vasquez De Espinal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
David Shaw
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Shaw
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Fadi Naami
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fadi Naami
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Fang
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Fang
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Gord Elliott
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gord Elliott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Karam Ahmed
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karam Ahmed
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Matulewicz
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Matulewicz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohsin Khan
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mohsin Khan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Dipika Damerla
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dipika Damerla
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dipika Damerla
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

George Tavares
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Tavares
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$774
Trade this on Polymarket
Rahul Mehta
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahul Mehta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Polymarket
Zulfiqar Ali
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zulfiqar Ali
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of Mississauga City Clerk
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bonnie Crombie
  • Carolyn Parrish
  • Alvin Tedjo

Live prices for Bonnie Crombie

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner". Bonnie Crombie leads at 48.7%. Next is Carolyn Parrish at 22.4%. $45K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

The 2026 Mississauga, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Mississauga, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Mississauga, Ontario.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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