The Prediction Markets

Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (November 2026)

Closes
Dec 4, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 4.5M 99%

Next is Above 4.25M at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 30s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
65¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 30s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75M
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75M
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
14.75M
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.75M
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Polymarket
15M
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
15M
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket
14.5M
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.5M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.25M
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25M
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5M
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5M
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6M
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6M
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 8M
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8M
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
15.25M
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
15.25M
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$598
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.25M
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.25M
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7M
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7M
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.75M
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.75M
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.75M
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75M
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.25M
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.25M
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.75M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.75M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5M
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5M
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
15.5M
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
15.5M
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.5M
  • Above 4.25M
  • Above 4.75M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.5M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (November 2026)". Above 4.5M leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.25M at 99%. $8K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 4, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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