The Prediction Markets

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

Starts in 15 daysKickoff
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Green Party 82%

Next is National Party at 55%. The venues differ most on Te Pāti Māori (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 5%), a 4.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Green Party
82%
Polymarket 82%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green Party
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
National Party
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
National
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labour Party
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labour
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Zealand First Party
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Zealand First Party
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
ACT New Zealand
7.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
ACT New Zealand
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
ACT New Zealand
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ACT
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Opportunity
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Opportunity
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Green Party
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
New Zealand First Party
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
NZ First
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Te Pāti Māori
1.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoKalshi 5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Te Pāti Māori
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$955
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Te Pāti Māori
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

National Party
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
National Party
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$638
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.nz
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New Zealand Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Green Party
  • National Party
  • Labour Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Green Party for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Zealand Election: 3rd Place". Green Party leads at 82%. Next is National Party at 55%. $29K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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