The Prediction Markets

Next CEO of NVIDIA?

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 26 months
Traded
$78K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Ian Buck 29.6%

Next is Jensen Huang (No Change) at 24.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Ian Buck 29.6%Jensen Huang (No Change) 24.4%Colette Kress 23.3%Rene Haas 7.1%Chris Malachowsky 2.6%14 others 13%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ian Buck
29.6%
Polymarket 28.5%(29.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ian Buck
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jensen Huang (No Change)
24.4%
Polymarket 23.5%(24.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jensen Huang (No Change)
Last price
23.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Colette Kress
23.3%
Polymarket 22.4%(23.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $439 (4.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colette Kress
Last price
22.4%
Fair, margin removed
23.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.8¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$439 (4.39x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rene Haas
7.1%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rene Haas
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$800 (8.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Malachowsky
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Malachowsky
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Kagan
2.4%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Kagan
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jay Puri
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jay Puri
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisa Su
2.1%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisa Su
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Madison Huang
1.7%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Madison Huang
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Spencer Huang
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spencer Huang
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$780
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Eric Schmidt
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Schmidt
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hock Tan
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hock Tan
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Polymarket
Jonah Alben
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jonah Alben
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Garman
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Garman
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$796
Trade this on Polymarket
Nico Caprez
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nico Caprez
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Kurian
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Kurian
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$811
Trade this on Polymarket
Bill Dally
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Dally
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$976
Trade this on Polymarket
Debora Shoquist
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Debora Shoquist
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pat Gelsinger
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pat Gelsinger
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ian Buck
  • Jensen Huang (No Change)
  • Colette Kress

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next CEO of NVIDIA?". Ian Buck leads at 29.6%. Next is Jensen Huang (No Change) at 24.4%. $78K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Jensen Huang as CEO of NVIDIA Corporation by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of NVIDIA. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no successor is announced by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Jensen Huang (No Change)”. The resolution source will be public statements from NVIDIA Corporation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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