The Prediction Markets

Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...?

Closes
Oct 24, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

October 27 27%

Next is On or prior to October 23 at 26%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
October 27
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 27
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
On or prior to October 23
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
On or prior to October 23
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 4
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 4
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 12
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 12
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
October 26
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 26
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
No release by November 30
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
No release by November 30
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Polymarket
November 6
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 6
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
October 29
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 29
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 5
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 5
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 30 more outcomes
October 30
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 30
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 9
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 9
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 25
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 25
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 2
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 2
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 11
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 11
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
October 28
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 28
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 27
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 27
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 13
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 13
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 3
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 3
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 17
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 17
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 20
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 20
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 28
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 28
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 29
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 29
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 10
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 10
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 18
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 18
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 19
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 19
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 22
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 22
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 23
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 23
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 24
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 24
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 26
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 26
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
October 24
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 24
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
October 25
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 25
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
November 1
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 1
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
November 7
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 7
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
November 8
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 8
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
November 14
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 14
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
November 15
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 15
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
November 16
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 16
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
November 21
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 21
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • October 27
  • On or prior to October 23
  • November 4

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...?". October 27 leads at 27%. Next is On or prior to October 23 at 26%. $4K has traded across 40 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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