Top of book
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
February 28 50.5%
Next is December 31 at 49.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
February 2850.5%53%50.5% fair27¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 4 h ago79¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $127 (1.27x)February 2850.5%Polymarket 53%(50.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
February 28
50.5%
53%
50.5% fair
27¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
79¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
February 28
50.5%
Polymarket 53%(50.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- February 28
- Last price
- 53%
- Fair, margin removed
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $797
December 3149.5%52%49.5% fair33¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 4 h ago71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)December 3149.5%Polymarket 52%(49.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
December 31
49.5%
52%
49.5% fair
33¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
December 31
49.5%
Polymarket 52%(49.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- December 31
- Last price
- 52%
- Fair, margin removed
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $641
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- February 28
- December 31
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Next GPT Terra (6.2+) released by...?". February 28 leads at 50.5%. Next is December 31 at 49.5%. $1K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (6.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 6.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.2 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra or GPT-6.1 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 6.2, such as GPT-6.1 Terra (released October 26, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6.1 Sol, or GPT-6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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