The Prediction Markets

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

Closes
Oct 24, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$69K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

November 30 92.6%

Next is Before 2028 at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
November 30
92.6%
Polymarket 92.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 94.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
92.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.2¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before 2028
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2028
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Kalshi
Before September, 2027
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before September, 2027
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 30
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 30
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
October 29
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 29
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Polymarket
October 28
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 28
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Polymarket
Before June, 2027
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before June, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 27
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 27
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Polymarket
October 26
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 26
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Before March, 2027
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before March, 2027
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 23
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 23
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenAI

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 30
  • Before 2028
  • Before September, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list November 30 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?". November 30 leads at 92.6%. Next is Before 2028 at 82%. $69K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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