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What the markets expect
Above 3.7% 99%
Next is Above 3.8% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 3.7%99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 47s agoNo askAbove 3.7%99%Kalshi 99%polled, 47s ago
Above 3.7%
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 47s ago
No ask
Above 3.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.7%
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $3K
Above 3.8%98%Not listed98%98¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 47s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 3.8%98%Kalshi 98%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.8%
98%
Not listed
98%
98¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.8%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.8%
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 5.9%97.5%Not listed97.5%95¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min agoNo askAbove 5.9%97.5%Kalshi 97.5%polled, 2 min ago
Above 5.9%
97.5%
Not listed
97.5%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
No ask
Above 5.9%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 2 min ago
Above 6.2%96.8%Not listed96.5%93¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 6.2%96.8%Kalshi 97%polled, 47s agoKalshi 96.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 6.2%
96.8%
Not listed
96.5%
93¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 6.2%
96.8%
Kalshi 97%polled, 47s agoKalshi 96.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.2%
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $977
Above 3.9%95%Not listed95%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 47s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 3.9%95%Kalshi 95%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.9%
95%
Not listed
95%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.9%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.9%
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 6.0%95%Not listed95%95¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min agoNo askAbove 6.0%95%Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min ago
Above 6.0%
95%
Not listed
95%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
No ask
Above 6.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.0%
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- Volume
- $401
Above 6.1%95%Not listed95%94¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 min agoNo askAbove 6.1%95%Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min ago
Above 6.1%
95%
Not listed
95%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 min ago
No ask
Above 6.1%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.1%
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 4.0%81%Not listed81%77¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 47s ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)Above 4.0%81%Kalshi 81%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Above 4.0%
81%
Not listed
81%
77¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Above 4.0%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0%
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $7K
Above 6.3%72%Not listed79%79¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 2 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 6.3%72%Kalshi 65%polled, 47s agoKalshi 79%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.3%
72%
Not listed
79%
79¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.3%
72%
Kalshi 65%polled, 47s agoKalshi 79%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.3%
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.3%
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $396
Above 6.4%58.8%Not listed41%12¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 2 min ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Above 6.4%58.8%Kalshi 77%polled, 47s agoKalshi 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Above 6.4%
58.8%
Not listed
41%
12¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Above 6.4%
58.8%
Kalshi 77%polled, 47s agoKalshi 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.4%
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $602
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.4%
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $617
Show 24 more outcomesHide 24 outcomes
Above 6.5%50.5%Not listed15%10¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 2 min ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above 6.5%50.5%Kalshi 86%polled, 47s agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 6.5%
50.5%
Not listed
15%
10¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 6.5%
50.5%
Kalshi 86%polled, 47s agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.5%
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $148
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.5%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Above 4.1%43%Not listed43%43¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 47s ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Above 4.1%43%Kalshi 43%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Above 4.1%
43%
Not listed
43%
43¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Above 4.1%
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1%
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $6K
6.8%30.5%30.5%21¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 8 min agoNot listed40¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $250 (2.50x)6.8%30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
6.8%
30.5%
30.5%
21¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
Not listed
40¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
6.8%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.8%
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $559
Above 6.6%28.3%Not listed3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 2 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Above 6.6%28.3%Kalshi 53%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 6.6%
28.3%
Not listed
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 6.6%
28.3%
Kalshi 53%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.6%
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $768
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.6%
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
6.7%22.5%22.5%21¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 8 min agoNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)6.7%22.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
6.7%
22.5%
22.5%
21¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
6.7%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.7%
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $411
Above 6.7%15.8%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 6.7%15.8%Kalshi 29%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.7%
15.8%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.7%
15.8%
Kalshi 29%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.7%
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.7%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
6.9%14%14%3¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 8 min agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)6.9%14%Polymarket 14%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
6.9%
14%
14%
3¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
6.9%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.9%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $209
Above 6.9%13.5%Not listed13.5%9¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 47s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Above 6.9%13.5%Kalshi 13.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 6.9%
13.5%
Not listed
13.5%
9¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Above 6.9%
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.9%
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
6.4%12.5%12.5%7¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 8 min agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)6.4%12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
6.4%
12.5%
12.5%
7¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
6.4%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.4%
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $307
Above 4.2%10%Not listed10%8¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 47s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Above 4.2%10%Kalshi 10%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 4.2%
10%
Not listed
10%
8¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 4.2%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2%
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $33K
6.6%8.5%8.5%2¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 8 min agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)6.6%8.5%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
6.6%
8.5%
8.5%
2¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
6.6%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.6%
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $140
Above 6.8%7.8%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 6.8%7.8%Kalshi 13%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.8%
7.8%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.8%
7.8%
Kalshi 13%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.8%
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $350
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.8%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
7.0%5.5%5.5%2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 8 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)7.0%5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
7.0%
5.5%
5.5%
2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
7.0%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 7.0%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $191
Above 7.0%5%Not listed5%2¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 47s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Above 7.0%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 7.0%
5%
Not listed
5%
2¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 7.0%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 7.0%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
6.5%4%4%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 8 min agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)6.5%4%Polymarket 4%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
6.5%
4%
4%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 8 min ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
6.5%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.5%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 8 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $87
Above 4.3%4%Not listed4%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 47s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 4.3%4%Kalshi 4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.3%
4%
Not listed
4%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.3%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above 7.1%3%Not listed3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 47s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 7.1%3%Kalshi 3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.1%
3%
Not listed
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.1%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 7.1%
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4.4%1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 47s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 4.4%1%Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.4%
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.4%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.4%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 4.5%1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 47s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 4.5%1%Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.5%
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.5%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 4.6%1%Not listed1%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 47s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 4.6%1%Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4.6%
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4.6%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.6%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 4.7%1%Not listed1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 47s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 4.7%1%Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.7%
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.7%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.7%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 4.8%1%Not listed1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 47s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 4.8%1%Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.8%
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.8%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 4.9%1%Not listed1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 47s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 4.9%1%Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.9%
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.9%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.9%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Above 5.0%1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 47s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 5.0%1%Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 5.0%
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 47s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 5.0%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.0%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trading Economics, Trading Economics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 3.7%
- Above 3.8%
- Above 5.9%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.7% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "November 2026 Unemployment Rate - Canada". Above 3.7% leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.8% at 98%. $87K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for November 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. The next data release is scheduled for December 4, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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