The Prediction Markets

November Inflation US - Monthly

Closes
Dec 11, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$1.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 3.1% 99%

Next is Above 3.3% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.1%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.1%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.3%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.3%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
93.2%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45s agoKalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.2%
90.8%
Kalshi 99%polled, 45s agoKalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.4%
87.3%
Kalshi 98%polled, 45s agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4%
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.6%
73.2%
Kalshi 83%polled, 45s agoKalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.6%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.6%
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.7%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.1%
28.1%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 7 min agoPolymarket 27%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
0.1%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 52.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
52.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Above 3.8%
26.5%
Kalshi 24%polled, 45s agoKalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$143K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2%
26.4%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 7 min agoPolymarket 26%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
0.4%
25.8%
Polymarket 25.8%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 50.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $198 (1.98x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4%
Last price
25.8%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
50.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$198 (1.98x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
0.3%
25.1%
Polymarket 26.1%polled, 7 min agoPolymarket 22%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
26.1%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
51.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$195 (1.95x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Polymarket
0.0%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.0%
8.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 45s agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.9%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.9%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$140K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2%
5.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.2%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.2%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.4%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.4%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4%
4.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 45s agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
2.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
2.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.3%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$132K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.6%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS - CPI-U

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.1%
  • Above 3.3%
  • Above 3.5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.1% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "November Inflation US - Monthly". Above 3.1% leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.3% at 98%. $1.1M has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 11, 2026.

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in November 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for November 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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