The Prediction Markets

Olivia Rodrigo: Highest daily view count (November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026)

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 4.5M 99%

Next is Above 4M at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5M
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5M
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8M
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8M
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
14.5M
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.5M
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
14.75M
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.75M
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Polymarket
15.5M
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
15.5M
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Polymarket
15M
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
15M
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket
15.25M
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
15.25M
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.5M
  • Above 4M
  • Above 5.5M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.5M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Olivia Rodrigo: Highest daily view count (November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026)". Above 4.5M leads at 99%. Next is Above 4M at 99%. $17K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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