The Prediction Markets

OpenAI share of requests on Oct 22, 2026 (Vercel)

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 7 hours
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 18.5% 99%

Next is Above 19.6% at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 18.5%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 50s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.5%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
12¢
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.6%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 50s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.6%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
12¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 22.3%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 22.3%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.7%
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.7%
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 22.9%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 22.9%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 24.4%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 24.4%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25.0%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25.7%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25.7%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 18.5%
  • Above 19.6%
  • Above 22.3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "OpenAI share of requests on Oct 22, 2026 (Vercel)". Above 18.5% leads at 99%. Next is Above 19.6% at 99%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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