The Prediction Markets

OpenRouter AI token usage Sep 28 to Oct 25?

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

675-725T 98.4%

Next is 625-675T at 1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

675-725T 98.4%625-675T 1%725T+ 0.5%575-625T 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
675-725T
98.4%
Polymarket 98.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
675-725T
Last price
98.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
97.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
625-675T
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
625-675T
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
725T+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
725T+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
575-625T
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
575-625T
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
575T
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
575T
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 675-725T
  • 625-675T
  • 725T+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "OpenRouter AI token usage Sep 28 to Oct 25?". 675-725T leads at 98.4%. Next is 625-675T at 1%. $36K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of tokens processed on OpenRouter for the four weeks of September 28 to October 25, 2026. The total number of tokens is the sum of the weekly totals displayed in the Top Models chart on OpenRouter's AI Model Rankings page (https://openrouter.ai/rankings#top-models) for the weeks of September 28, October 5, October 12 and October 19, 2026. OpenRouter's weeks run from 12:00 AM UTC on Monday to 11:59 PM UTC on Sunday, and a week's figures continue to update until the following week's figures are first displayed. This market will resolve according to the totals displayed for those four weeks once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the totals displayed for those four weeks at that time. This market will resolve based on the totals as displayed on the chart, including any rounding applied by OpenRouter. If the total falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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