The Prediction Markets

Oscar Winner: Casting

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
38 min ago
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What the markets expect

The Odyssey 32%

Next is La Bola Negra at 23.1%. The venues differ most on Wild Horse Nine (Polymarket 22.2%, Kalshi 8%), a 14-point gap.

The Odyssey 32%La Bola Negra 23.1%Wild Horse Nine 12.5%Dune: Part Three 8%Obsession 3.6%16 others 20.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 45 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Odyssey
32%
Polymarket 42%(32.7% fair)polled, 45 min agoKalshi 30%(27.2% fair)polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
32.7%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
27.2%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34¢.

La Bola Negra
23.1%
Polymarket 24.4%(19% fair)polled, 45 min agoKalshi 37%(33.5% fair)polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 34.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $291 (2.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
24.4%
Fair, margin removed
19%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
34.4¢
Sell Yes
14.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$291 (2.91x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
33.5%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 34.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
12.5%
Polymarket 22.2%(17.3% fair)polled, 45 min agoKalshi 8%(7.2% fair)polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
22.2%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
33.4¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$299 (2.99x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.2%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Dune: Part Three
8%
Polymarket 15.5%(12.1% fair)polled, 45 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.1%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
29.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$334 (3.34x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Obsession
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.5% fair)polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Being Heumann
3%
Polymarket 2.9%(2.2% fair)polled, 45 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
2.9%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$737
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.3¢.

Club Kid
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elsinore
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
I Play Rocky
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
The Debut
2.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45 min agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Michael
1.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45 min agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 38 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$621
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 38 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 45 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Fjord
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail Mary
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a Sudden
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Polymarket
The Invite
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarissa
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$730
Trade this on Polymarket
Cry to Heaven
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Saturn Return
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$851
Trade this on Polymarket
UNABOMBER
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 45 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 45 min old: Michael asks 0.2¢ on Polymarket and bids 1¢ on Kalshi (80 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • Wild Horse Nine

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Casting". The Odyssey leads at 32%. Next is La Bola Negra at 23.1%. $29K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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