The Prediction Markets

Oscar Winner: Documentary Short Film

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

The Baddest Speechwriter of All 25%

Next is The Tuners at 12.6%. The venues differ most on The Tuners (Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 7%), a 7.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Baddest Speechwriter of All
25%
Polymarket 23.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 30%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Baddest Speechwriter of All
Last price
23.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Baddest Speechwriter of All
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

The Tuners
12.6%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Tuners
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Tuners
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

A Derailment
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Derailment
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Revolution Against Death
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Revolution Against Death
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Oh Whale
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oh Whale
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
The Boys and the Bees
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Boys and the Bees
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Water Cooler
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Water Cooler
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Polymarket
A Wolf in the Suburbs
5.1%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Wolf in the Suburbs
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
A Wolf in the Suburbs
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tie
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
One Last Order
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Last Order
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
We're Fine
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
We're Fine
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Listen
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Listen
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Baddest Speechwriter of All
  • The Tuners
  • A Derailment

Live prices for The Baddest Speechwriter of All

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Documentary Short Film". The Baddest Speechwriter of All leads at 25%. Next is The Tuners at 12.6%. $34K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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