The Prediction Markets

Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $80M 94%

Next is Above $90M at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $80M
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $80M
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $90M
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $90M
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $100M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $110M
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $110M
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$556
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $120M
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $120M
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $130M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $130M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $140M
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $140M
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $150M
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $150M
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $160M
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $160M
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sotheby’s

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $80M
  • Above $90M
  • Above $100M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?". Above $80M leads at 94%. Next is Above $90M at 94%. $8K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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