The Prediction Markets

Pierre-Auguste Renoir: En Canot (Jeune fille à la barque) sale price?

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $15M 96%

Next is Above $20M at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $15M
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $15M
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $20M
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $20M
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $25M
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $25M
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $30M
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $30M
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $35M
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $35M
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $40M
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $40M
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $45M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $45M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $50M
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $50M
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $55M
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $55M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sotheby’s

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $15M
  • Above $20M
  • Above $25M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Pierre-Auguste Renoir: En Canot (Jeune fille à la barque) sale price?". Above $15M leads at 96%. Next is Above $20M at 96%. $6K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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