The Prediction Markets

Rivian Automotive Inc. total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026

Closed
Sep 3, 2026
Traded
$74K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 9000
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9000
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9500
71.5%
Kalshi 71.5%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9500
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10000
64.5%
Kalshi 64.5%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10000
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10500
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10500
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11000
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11000
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11500
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11500
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$992
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12000
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12000
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12500
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12500
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13500
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13500
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14000
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14000
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$848
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 13000
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13000
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15500
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15500
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14500
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14500
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15000
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15000
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16500
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16500
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16000
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16000
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17000
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17500
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17500
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 9000
  • Above 9500
  • Above 10000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Rivian Automotive Inc. total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026". Above 9000 last traded at 74.5%. Next is Above 9500 at 71.5%. $74K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Sep 3, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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