The Prediction Markets

Second-best AI Lab end of January?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Google 28%

Next is Anthropic at 27.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Google 28%Anthropic 27.3%Meta 11.7%Thinky 4.7%Alibaba 4.6%16 others 23.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Google
28%
Polymarket 39.5%(28% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
39.5%
Fair, margin removed
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
27.3%
Polymarket 38.5%(27.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
38.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
11.7%
Polymarket 16.5%(11.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
16.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Thinky
4.7%
Polymarket 6.6%(4.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thinky
Last price
6.6%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$820 (8.20x)
Volume
$817
Trade this on Polymarket
Alibaba
4.6%
Polymarket 6.6%(4.6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $826 (8.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
6.6%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$826 (8.26x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAI
4.5%
Polymarket 6.4%(4.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
6.4%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$813 (8.13x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
4%
Polymarket 5.6%(4% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
5.6%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
3.2%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$553
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI
2.1%
Polymarket 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Polymarket
DeepSeek
1.9%
Polymarket 2.7%(1.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
2.7%
Fair, margin removed
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Moonshot
1.9%
Polymarket 2.8%(2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
2.8%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
1.7%
Polymarket 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
1.2%
Polymarket 1.8%(1.2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
1.8%
Fair, margin removed
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$931
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Polymarket
Baidu
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Polymarket
StepFun
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$370
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Google
  • Anthropic
  • Meta

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Second-best AI Lab end of January?". Google leads at 28%. Next is Anthropic at 27.3%. $14K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets