What are the odds of 2% Gain in S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1?

2% Gain last traded at 99.7% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 3% Gain in S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1?

3% Gain last traded at 0.1% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 3% Loss in S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1?

3% Loss last traded at 0.1% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 4% Gain in S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1?

4% Gain last traded at 0.1% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 4% Loss in S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1?

4% Loss last traded at 0% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 5% Gain in S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1?

5% Gain last traded at 0% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 5% Loss in S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1?

5% Loss last traded at 0% before the market closed.

S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1

Closed: Mar 31, 2026
Traded: $344K
Venues: Polymarket

This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 206 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket

Outcome

Fair chance

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Best Yes price

2% Gain

99.7%

100%

99.9¢ bid, — ask

polled, 4945 h ago

No ask

2% Gain

99.7%

Polymarket 100%polled, 4945 h ago

Polymarket

Contract: 2% Gain
Last price: 100%
As of: Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes: —
Sell Yes: 99.9¢
Volume: $20K

Trade this on Polymarket

3% Gain

0.1%

— bid, 0.1¢ ask

polled, 4945 h ago

0.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

3% Gain

0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4945 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

Polymarket

Contract: 3% Gain
Last price: 0.1%
As of: Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $100,000 (1000x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

3% Loss

0.1%

— bid, 0.1¢ ask

polled, 4945 h ago

0.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

3% Loss

0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4945 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

Polymarket

Contract: 3% Loss
Last price: 0.1%
As of: Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $100,000 (1000x)
Volume: $30K

Trade this on Polymarket

4% Gain

0.1%

— bid, 0.1¢ ask

polled, 4945 h ago

0.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

4% Gain

0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4945 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

Polymarket

Contract: 4% Gain
Last price: 0.1%
As of: Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $100,000 (1000x)
Volume: $14K

Trade this on Polymarket

4% Loss

0.1%

— bid, 0.1¢ ask

polled, 4945 h ago

0.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

4% Loss

Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4945 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

Polymarket

Contract: 4% Loss
Last price: 0.1%
As of: Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $100,000 (1000x)
Volume: $30K

Trade this on Polymarket

5% Gain

0.1%

— bid, 0.1¢ ask

polled, 4945 h ago

0.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

5% Gain

Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4945 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

Polymarket

Contract: 5% Gain
Last price: 0.1%
As of: Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $100,000 (1000x)
Volume: $25K

Trade this on Polymarket

5% Loss

0.1%

— bid, 0.1¢ ask

polled, 4945 h ago

0.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

5% Loss

Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4945 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)

Polymarket

Contract: 5% Loss
Last price: 0.1%
As of: Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $100,000 (1000x)
Volume: $178K

Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

2% Gain
3% Gain
3% Loss

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1". 2% Gain last traded at 99.7%. Next is 3% Gain at 0.1%. $344K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Odds by venue

Who resolves this market

How the odds have moved

About this market

Questions

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