The Prediction Markets

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

Closed
Dec 31, 2026
Traded
$2.3M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Dec 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 161 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
September 30
95.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 3885 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
September 30
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$121K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31
95.3%
Polymarket 95.3%polled, 3885 h agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
94.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$114K
Trade this on Polymarket
August 31
93.5%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 3885 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
August 31
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 3885 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$272K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 15
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 3885 h agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 15
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 31
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3885 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 31
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$516K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • September 30
  • December 31
  • August 31

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "SpaceX IPO by ___ ?". September 30 last traded at 95.5%. Next is December 31 at 95.3%. $2.3M has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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