The Prediction Markets

SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

Closed
Sep 17, 2026
Traded
$69K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 17, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before September 17th
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3023 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before September 17th
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before September
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3023 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before September
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before August 17th
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3023 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before August 17th
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before August
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3023 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before August
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before July 17th
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3023 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before July 17th
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before July
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3023 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before July
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FAA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before September 17th
  • Before September
  • Before August 17th

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "SpaceX Starship 13th launch?". Before September 17th last traded at 92%. Next is Before September at 88%. $69K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Sep 17, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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