The Prediction Markets

Texas Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$59K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 8.20M 90%

Next is Above 8.80M at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 8.20M
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.20M
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.80M
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.80M
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.40M
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.40M
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.00M
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.00M
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.30M
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.30M
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.60M
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.60M
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.20M
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.20M
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
11.2M+
28.8%
Polymarket 28.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $312 (3.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.2M+
Last price
28.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
32.1¢
Sell Yes
25.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$312 (3.12x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
9.6M-10M
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
9.6M-10M
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
10M-10.4M
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
10M-10.4M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 11.80M
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.80M
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
10.8M-11.2M
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.8M-11.2M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
19.6¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$510 (5.10x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 12.40M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.40M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$986
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.90M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.90M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.50M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.50M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
10.4M-10.8M
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.4M-10.8M
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
9.2M-9.6M
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
9.2M-9.6M
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8.4M-8.8M
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
8.4M-8.8M
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Polymarket
8M
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
8M
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
8.8M-9.2M
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
8.8M-9.2M
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
8M-8.4M
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
8M-8.4M
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 8.20M
  • Above 8.80M
  • Above 9.40M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 8.20M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Texas Senate Election: Turnout". Above 8.20M leads at 90%. Next is Above 8.80M at 83%. $59K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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