The Prediction Markets

"The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office (Highest Brackets)

Closes
Nov 22, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

130m+ 42.8%

Next is 120m-125m at 14.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

130m+ 42.8%120m-125m 14.9%115m-120m 14.7%105m-110m 13.6%105m 7.5%2 others 6.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
130m+
42.8%
Polymarket 59.5%(42.7% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
130m+
Last price
59.5%
Fair, margin removed
42.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Polymarket
120m-125m
14.9%
Polymarket 20.7%(14.9% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 38.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $261 (2.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
120m-125m
Last price
20.7%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.3¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$261 (2.61x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Polymarket
115m-120m
14.7%
Polymarket 20.5%(14.7% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
115m-120m
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
105m-110m
13.6%
Polymarket 19%(13.6% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 36.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $273 (2.73x)
Polymarket
Contract
105m-110m
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$273 (2.73x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket
105m
7.5%
Polymarket 10.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
105m
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
110m-115m
3.6%
Polymarket 5.1%(3.6% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
110m-115m
Last price
5.1%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Polymarket
125m-130m
2.9%
Polymarket 4%(2.9% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
125m-130m
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 130m+
  • 120m-125m
  • 115m-120m

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for ""The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office (Highest Brackets)". 130m+ leads at 42.8%. Next is 120m-125m at 14.9%. $3K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" will gross domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (November 20 - 22). This market will resolve as soon as a final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening weekend figure is available, and no later than December 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure by December 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the "Weekend" figure for the movie's first weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page. If neither source has a final figure by December 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the figure The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the figure Box Office Mojo reports at that time. If neither source reports any figure by December 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve according to the figure for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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