The Prediction Markets

Top AI model on April 10? (Style Control On)

Closed
Apr 10, 2026
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 10, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
99.8%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4707 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
claude-opus-4-6
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
claude-opus-4-6
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
gemini-3-pro
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
gemini-3-pro
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4707 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • claude-opus-4-6-thinking
  • claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
  • claude-opus-4-6

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Top AI model on April 10? (Style Control On)". claude-opus-4-6-thinking last traded at 99.8%. Next is claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k at 0.1%. $48K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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