The Prediction Markets

Top Chinese AI Company week of November 2nd

Closes
Nov 9, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$103K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Xiaomi 46.6%

Next is Alibaba at 26%. The venues differ most on Xiaomi (Polymarket 36.9%, Kalshi 78%), a 41-point gap.

Xiaomi 46.6%Alibaba 26%Moonshot 9.5%Z.ai 7%DeepSeek 4.3%6 others 6.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Xiaomi
46.6%
Polymarket 36.9%(34.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 78%(70.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $262 (2.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
36.9%
Fair, margin removed
34.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38.2¢
Sell Yes
35.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$262 (2.62x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
78%
Fair, margin removed
70.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 38.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 3180 bps before fees.

Alibaba
26%
Polymarket 34.5%(32.6% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
32.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 33¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Moonshot
9.5%
Polymarket 12%(11.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Z.ai
7%
Polymarket 11%(10.4% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

DeepSeek
4.3%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 2.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 530 bps before fees.

Tencent
2%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tencent
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.5¢ nets 250 bps before fees.

ByteDance
1.3%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

MiniMax
1.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Baidu
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Meituan
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Meituan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

StepFun
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Xiaomi asks 38.2¢ on Polymarket and bids 70¢ on Kalshi (3180 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 9, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: arena.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 9, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Xiaomi
  • Alibaba
  • Moonshot

Live prices for Xiaomi

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top Chinese AI Company week of November 2nd". Xiaomi leads at 46.6%. Next is Alibaba at 26%. $103K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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