Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
I’m the Problem 75%
Next is The Life of a Showgirl at 10.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
I’m the Problem75%81%75% fair77¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, just now81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)I’m the Problem75%Kalshi 81%(75% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
I’m the Problem
75%
81%
75% fair
77¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, just now
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
I’m the Problem
75%
Kalshi 81%(75% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I’m the Problem
- Last price
- 81%
- Fair, margin removed
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $4K
The Life of a Showgirl10.2%11%10.2% fair10¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)The Life of a Showgirl10.2%Kalshi 11%(10.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
The Life of a Showgirl
10.2%
11%
10.2% fair
10¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
The Life of a Showgirl
10.2%
Kalshi 11%(10.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Life of a Showgirl
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $801
ARIRANG1%1%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)ARIRANG1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
ARIRANG
1%
1%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
ARIRANG
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ARIRANG
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Dandelion1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Dandelion1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dandelion
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dandelion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dandelion
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $113
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
GNX1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)GNX1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
GNX
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
GNX
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- GNX
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $297
ICEMAN0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)ICEMAN0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
ICEMAN
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
ICEMAN
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ICEMAN
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $96
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
KPop Demon Hunters0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)KPop Demon Hunters0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
KPop Demon Hunters
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
KPop Demon Hunters
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $98
Octane0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Octane0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Octane
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Octane
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Octane
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $213
Show 8 more outcomesHide 8 outcomes
One Thing at a Time0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)One Thing at a Time0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
One Thing at a Time
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
One Thing at a Time
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- One Thing at a Time
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $213
Short n’ Sweet0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Short n’ Sweet0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Short n’ Sweet
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Short n’ Sweet
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Short n’ Sweet
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $238
SOS0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)SOS0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
SOS
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
SOS
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SOS
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $229
The Art Of Loving0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Art Of Loving0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Art Of Loving
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Art Of Loving
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Art Of Loving
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $115
The Fall Off0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Fall Off0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Fall Off
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Fall Off
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Fall Off
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $213
The Great Divide0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Great Divide0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Great Divide
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Great Divide
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Great Divide
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $111
Thriller0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Thriller0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Thriller
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Thriller
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Thriller
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $394
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $113
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- I’m the Problem
- The Life of a Showgirl
- ARIRANG
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Top U.S. Album by Total Equivalent Album Units: 2026". I’m the Problem leads at 75%. Next is The Life of a Showgirl at 10.2%. $9K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 26, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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