The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/11 - 5/17)

Closed
May 19, 2026
Traded
$93K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 5
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3833 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 75
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 75
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3833 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 5
  • Above 10
  • Above 15

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/11 - 5/17)". Above 5 last traded at 99%. Next is Above 10 at 98%. $93K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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