The Prediction Markets

UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ)?

Closes
Feb 12, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$486K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Above 0.5% 97.5%

Next is Above 1.5% at 97.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.5%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 6 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 29 more outcomes
Above 0.0%
86.7%
Kalshi 76%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
2.1% to 2.5%
86.6%
Kalshi 86.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 86.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.1% to 2.5%
Last price
86.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
86.6¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.4%
77.8%
Kalshi 87%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 50%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.4%
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.2%
72.5%
Kalshi 83%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 62%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.2%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
57.3%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 97.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2–0.3%
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2–0.3%
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.6%
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.6%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
0.4–0.5%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4–0.5%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.2%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.2%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.8%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.8%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6–0.7%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6–0.7%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$670
Trade this on Polymarket
Negative
11.1%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Negative
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$572
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6% to 2.0%
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.6% to 2.0%
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0–0.1%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0–0.1%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
0.8–0.9%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.8–0.9%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
2.6% to 3.0%
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.6% to 3.0%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.0%+
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0%+
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1% to 0.5%
1.8%
Kalshi 1.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.1% to 0.5%
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.1% to 3.5%
1.7%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.1% to 3.5%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% to 5.0%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% to 5.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.6% to 4.0%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.6% to 4.0%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.1% to 4.5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0% or Below
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.0% or Below
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1% to 1.5%
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.1% to 1.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.6% to 1.0%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% to 5.5%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% to 5.5%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
6.1% or Above
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.6% to 6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trading Economics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.5%
  • Above 2.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.5% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UK GDP growth in Q4 2026 (QoQ)?". Above 0.5% leads at 97.5%. Next is Above 1.5% at 97.5%. $486K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 12, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q4 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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