The Prediction Markets

Unemployment in October

Closes
Nov 6, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$170K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
19 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.7% 99%

Next is Above 3.8% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 21 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 19 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.8%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.9%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.9%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.2%
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.3%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.2%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.3%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
4.0%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$951
Trade this on Polymarket
4.4%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.4%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.4%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$899
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$799
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
3.8%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Polymarket
3.9%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket
4.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.7%
  • Above 3.8%
  • Above 3.9%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.7% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Unemployment in October". Above 3.7% leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.8% at 99%. $170K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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