The Prediction Markets

US electricity price in November

Closes
Dec 10, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Above 18.2¢ 99%

Next is Above 18.4¢ at 96.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 18.2¢
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.2¢
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.4¢
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.4¢
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.6¢
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.6¢
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.8¢
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.8¢
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.30-2.40
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.30-2.40
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.40-2.50
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.40-2.50
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.20-2.30
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.20-2.30
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Polymarket
2.50-2.60
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.50-2.60
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 19.0¢
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0¢
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.2¢
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.2¢
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
2.60-2.70
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.60-2.70
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Polymarket
2.80 or more
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.80 or more
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 19.4¢
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.4¢
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.00-2.10
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.00-2.10
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Polymarket
2.10-2.20
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.10-2.20
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Polymarket
Less than $2.00
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Less than $2.00
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket
2.70-2.80
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.70-2.80
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FRED

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 18.2¢
  • Above 18.4¢
  • Above 18.6¢

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 18.2¢ for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US electricity price in November". Above 18.2¢ leads at 99%. Next is Above 18.4¢ at 96.5%. $6K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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