The Prediction Markets

Vincent van Gogh: Châtaigniers en fleurs sale price?

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $100M 96.5%

Next is Above $120M at 96.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $100M
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100M
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $120M
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $120M
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $140M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $140M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $160M
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $160M
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $180M
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $180M
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$730
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $200M
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $200M
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $220M
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $220M
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $240M
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $240M
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $260M
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $260M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$373
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sotheby’s

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $100M
  • Above $120M
  • Above $140M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Vincent van Gogh: Châtaigniers en fleurs sale price?". Above $100M leads at 96.5%. Next is Above $120M at 96.5%. $6K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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