The Prediction Markets

Virginia Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2.80M 91%

Next is Above 3.00M at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2.80M
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.80M
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00M
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00M
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.20M
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.20M
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$904
Trade this on Kalshi
3.5M-3.75M
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5M-3.75M
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.40M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.40M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.60M
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.60M
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
3.25M-3.5M
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.25M-3.5M
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.80M
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.80M
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
3.75M-4M
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 16.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $610 (6.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.75M-4M
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$752
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.00M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
2.5M-2.75M
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5M-2.75M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
3M-3.25M
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
3M-3.25M
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.60M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.60M
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
4M+
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4M+
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.75M-3M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.75M-3M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.20M
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.20M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.40M
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.40M
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Virginia Department of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2.80M
  • Above 3.00M
  • Above 3.20M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2.80M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Virginia Senate Election: Turnout". Above 2.80M leads at 91%. Next is Above 3.00M at 79%. $23K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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