The Prediction Markets

What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

4% to 5% 30.1%

Next is 5% to 6% at 21.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

4% to 5% 30.1%5% to 6% 21.1%4% 15.9%6% to 7% 8.2%8% to 9% 6%5 others 18.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4% to 5%
30.1%
Polymarket 35%(30.1% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
4% to 5%
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
30.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5% to 6%
21.1%
Polymarket 24.5%(21.1% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
5% to 6%
Last price
24.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4%
15.9%
Polymarket 18.5%(15.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
4%
Last price
18.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
6% to 7%
8.2%
Polymarket 9.6%(8.2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
6% to 7%
Last price
9.6%
Fair, margin removed
8.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
8% to 9%
6%
Polymarket 7%(6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
8% to 9%
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
10% to 11%
6%
Polymarket 7%(6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
10% to 11%
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Polymarket
9% to 10%
5.2%
Polymarket 6%(5.2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
9% to 10%
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Polymarket
12%+
5.2%
Polymarket 6%(5.2% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
12%+
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Polymarket
7% to 8%
1.8%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
7% to 8%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Polymarket
11% to 12%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
11% to 12%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4% to 5%
  • 5% to 6%
  • 4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO?". 4% to 5% leads at 30.1%. Next is 5% to 6% at 21.1%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of Anthropic's total outstanding shares sold in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The number of shares sold is defined as the total number of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold by Anthropic and shares sold by selling stockholders as part of the IPO offering will both be included. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Shares sold in any private placement concurrent with the IPO will not be included in the number of shares sold. Total outstanding shares is defined as the number of shares of Class A common stock plus the number of shares of Class N common stock to be outstanding after the offering, each as stated in the section titled "The Offering" of the final prospectus, using the Class A figure that assumes no exercise of the overallotment option. The percentage will be calculated by dividing the number of shares sold by the total outstanding shares, without rounding. If the percentage falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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