The Prediction Markets

What will Fed Gov Barr say during his remarks at Yale?

Closes
Nov 26, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Productivity 95%

Next is AI / Artificial Intelligence at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Productivity
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Productivity
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labor / Employment / Unemployment
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labor / Employment / Unemployment
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation / Inflationary
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation / Inflationary
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordability / Affordable
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordability / Affordable
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Kalshi
Liquidity
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liquidity
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Mortgage
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mortgage
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
Financial Crisis
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Financial Crisis
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Recession
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Recession
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$214
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stablecoin
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stablecoin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Balance Sheet
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balance Sheet
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Bank Run
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bank Run
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Productivity
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence
  • Labor / Employment / Unemployment

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
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—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Fed Gov Barr say during his remarks at Yale?". Productivity leads at 95%. Next is AI / Artificial Intelligence at 94%. $5K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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