The Prediction Markets

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Closed
Apr 30, 2026
Traded
$550K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ghawar Field
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ghawar Field
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Khurais Field
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khurais Field
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ras Tanura
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ras Tanura
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Leviathan Field
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leviathan Field
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Al Zour Refinery
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Al Zour Refinery
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ruwais Refinery
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruwais Refinery
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Abqaiq oil processing facility
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abqaiq oil processing facility
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ras Laffan Industrial City
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ras Laffan Industrial City
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Polymarket
Safaniya Field
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Safaniya Field
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Burj Khalifa
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Burj Khalifa
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4217 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ghawar Field
  • Khurais Field
  • Ras Tanura

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?". Ghawar Field last traded at 2.6%. Next is Khurais Field at 1.6%. $550K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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