The Prediction Markets

What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote?

Closes
Dec 15, 2026, in 36 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Cosmos 80%

Next is TSMC at 78%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Cosmos
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cosmos
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
TSMC
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
TSMC
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
CrowdStrike
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
CrowdStrike
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
DSX
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
DSX
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Physical AI
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Physical AI
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Omniverse
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omniverse
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hermes
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hermes
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
BlueField
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
BlueField
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenShell
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenShell
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Humanoid
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Humanoid
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Hyperscaler
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyperscaler
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Gaming
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gaming
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Google Cloud
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Google Cloud
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Minerva
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minerva
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: NVIDIA Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cosmos
  • TSMC
  • CrowdStrike

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote?". Cosmos leads at 80%. Next is TSMC at 78%. $5K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets