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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Starlink 91%
Next is Grok at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Starlink91%91%90¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 h ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Starlink91%Kalshi 91%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Starlink
91%
91%
90¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Starlink
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Starlink
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $170
Grok90%90%88¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 h ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Grok90%Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Grok
90%
90%
88¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Grok
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Grok
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 88¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $156
Starship90%90%90¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 h ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Starship90%Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Starship
90%
90%
90¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Starship
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Starship
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $153
Tesla90%90%82¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 h ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Tesla90%Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Tesla
90%
90%
82¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Tesla
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tesla
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $11
Cursor89%89%87¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 h ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Cursor89%Kalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Cursor
89%
89%
87¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Cursor
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cursor
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $145
Starmind87%87%86¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 h ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Starmind87%Kalshi 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Starmind
87%
87%
86¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Starmind
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Starmind
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $15
Starbase86%86%86¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 h ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Starbase86%Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Starbase
86%
86%
86¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Starbase
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Starbase
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $7
Moon85%85%85¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Moon85%Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Moon
85%
85%
85¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Moon
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moon
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $79
Artemis77%77%72¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 1 h ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)Artemis77%Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Artemis
77%
77%
72¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Artemis
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Artemis
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
China / Chinese77%77%72¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 1 h ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)China / Chinese77%Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
China / Chinese
77%
77%
72¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
China / Chinese
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- China / Chinese
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
Show 12 more outcomesHide 12 outcomes
NASA75.5%75.5%73¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 1 h ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)NASA75.5%Kalshi 75.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
NASA
75.5%
75.5%
73¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
NASA
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- NASA
- Last price
- 75.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
ISS / International Space Station72%72%62¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 h ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)ISS / International Space Station72%Kalshi 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
ISS / International Space Station
72%
72%
62¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
ISS / International Space Station
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ISS / International Space Station
- Last price
- 72%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $6
Starshield69%69%64¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 1 h ago74¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Starshield69%Kalshi 69%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Starshield
69%
69%
64¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
74¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Starshield
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Starshield
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
Combine / Combining60%60%55¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 1 h ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)Combine / Combining60%Kalshi 60%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Combine / Combining
60%
60%
55¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Combine / Combining
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Combine / Combining
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
Merge / Merger55%55%37¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 1 h ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Merge / Merger55%Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Merge / Merger
55%
55%
37¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Merge / Merger
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Merge / Merger
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $43
NVIDIA48%48%38¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 h ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)NVIDIA48%Kalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
NVIDIA
48%
48%
38¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
NVIDIA
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- NVIDIA
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $32
Anthropic / OpenAI38%38%33¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 1 h ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Anthropic / OpenAI38%Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Anthropic / OpenAI
38%
38%
33¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Anthropic / OpenAI
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthropic / OpenAI
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $65
Colossus38%38%33¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 1 h ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Colossus38%Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Colossus
38%
38%
33¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Colossus
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colossus
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $65
Data Center28%28%20¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 1 h ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Data Center28%Kalshi 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Data Center
28%
28%
20¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Data Center
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Data Center
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $221
Mars26%26%21¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 h ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Mars26%Kalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Mars
26%
26%
21¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Mars
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mars
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
T-Mobile19%19%14¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 h ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)T-Mobile19%Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
T-Mobile
19%
19%
14¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
T-Mobile
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- T-Mobile
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
Trump13%13%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 h ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Trump13%Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Trump
13%
13%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Trump
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trump
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $86
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: SpaceX Investor Events
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Starlink
- Grok
- Starship
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call?". Starlink leads at 91%. Next is Grok at 90%. $1K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 26, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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