The Prediction Markets

What will Tesla say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Apr 27, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 min ago
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What the markets expect

Cybercab 90%

Next is Terafab at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Cybercab
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cybercab
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Terafab
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Terafab
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Solar
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Solar
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
SpaceX / xAI
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
SpaceX / xAI
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Roadster
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roadster
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
China
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Semi
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Semi
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
Competition
81.5%
Kalshi 81.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Competition
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Megapack 3
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Megapack 3
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cybertruck
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cybertruck
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Kalshi
Merge / Merger
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merge / Merger
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Samsung
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Samsung
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Grok (3+ times)
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grok (3+ times)
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Supercharger / Super Charger
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supercharger / Super Charger
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miami
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Intel
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Intel
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gigafactory
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gigafactory
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Waymo
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Waymo
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tesla, Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cybercab
  • Terafab
  • Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Tesla say during their next earnings call?". Cybercab leads at 90%. Next is Terafab at 90%. $1K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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