The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say this week? (October 19 - October 25)

Starts in 3 daysKickoff
Traded
$140K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Cybersecurity / Cyber Security 99%

Next is Ethanol at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cybersecurity / Cyber Security
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Cybersecurity / Cyber Security
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ethanol
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 34s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Ethanol
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bibi / Netanyahu
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bibi / Netanyahu
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rigged Election / Stolen Election
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rigged Election / Stolen Election
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuba / Cuban
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuba / Cuban
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Allah
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allah
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Tomahawk
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tomahawk
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Four More Years
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Four More Years
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Six Seven
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Six Seven
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 22 more outcomes
Strategic / Strategy
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strategic / Strategy
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Autopen / Auto Pen
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autopen / Auto Pen
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$822
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire / Uranium
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ceasefire / Uranium
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Polymarket
Vanilla / Ice Cream
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vanilla / Ice Cream
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran / Mamdani
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Antifa
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antifa
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stupid Question
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stupid Question
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Flying Car / Roadster
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flying Car / Roadster
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Houthi
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Houthi
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zacharia
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zacharia
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Dome
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Dome
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Prediction Market / Predictive Market
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Prediction Market / Predictive Market
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
UFO / UAP
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
UFO / UAP
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Uranium
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uranium
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Make Iran Great Again
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cybersecurity / Cyber Security
  • Ethanol
  • Bibi / Netanyahu

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cybersecurity / Cyber Security for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say this week? (October 19 - October 25)". Cybersecurity / Cyber Security leads at 99%. Next is Ethanol at 99%. $140K has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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