The Prediction Markets

Where will Jensen Huang work next?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$163K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

No new company before 2028 29.5%

Next is Microsoft at 17%. The venues differ most on SoftBank (Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 3%), a 32-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No new company before 2028
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
No new company before 2028
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
MicrosoftArb
17%
Polymarket 33%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

SpaceX
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceX
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Polymarket
NVIDIA
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
NVIDIA
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
SoftBankArb
11.1%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
SoftBank
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
SoftBank
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$818
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Founds new company
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Founds new company
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
MetaArb
7.8%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

TSMCArb
7.6%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
TSMC
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
TSMC
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

IntelArb
7.1%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Intel
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Intel
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Show 8 more outcomes
OracleArb
6.3%
Polymarket 16%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oracle
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oracle
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

AMDArb
4.9%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
AMD
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AMD
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

TeslaArb
4.4%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tesla
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tesla
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

SpaceX / xAI
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
SpaceX / xAI
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amazon
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAIArb
2.9%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Apple
2.2%
Polymarket 3%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Apple
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Apple
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$986
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Microsoft on Kalshi at 2¢, sell on Polymarket at 13¢ (1100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Nvidia newsroom, AMD newsroom, Tesla official website
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No new company before 2028
  • Microsoft
  • SpaceX

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No new company before 2028 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will Jensen Huang work next?". No new company before 2028 leads at 29.5%. Next is Microsoft at 17%. $163K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to the first company at which Jensen Huang is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within its corporate or governance structure between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If Jensen Huang first publicly announces that he has founded, or will found, a new company within that period, this market will resolve to “Founds new company.” If that company is not listed as an outcome, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no such announcement is made by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new company before 2028.” Nonprofit organizations, universities, foundations, and government bodies will not qualify; however, a role at a nonprofit organization, foundation, or trust that controls or formally oversees a qualifying company (e.g., the OpenAI Foundation) will count toward that company. Roles Jensen Huang already held at market creation will not qualify. Qualifying roles include employment, executive, officer, director, formal advisory, or governance positions, including membership in a body formally responsible for governing or overseeing the company. A role within a subsidiary or controlled entity of a company (for example, SpaceXAI, formerly xAI, for SpaceX) will count toward that company. Preliminary discussions, negotiations or talks about a potential role, offers that have not been accepted, unpaid speaking engagements, guest appearances and one-time consulting will not qualify. Merely investing in a company, entering into a commercial or research partnership, informally advising, or working for an independent organization that collaborates with or provides services to a company will not qualify unless Jensen Huang also accepts or begins a formal role within the company’s corporate or governance structure. An announcement that Jensen Huang has founded, or will found, a new company must identify him as a founder or co-founder of the new company and must either name the company or state definitively that Jensen Huang has founded or will found it (e.g., “I have started a new company,” “I will be launching a new company”). Statements that Jensen Huang is considering, exploring, hoping, planning or in discussions to found a company, or that he may or might do so, will not qualify, nor will third-party reports of such plans. The company need not be incorporated or operating by the resolution date. Companies publicly announced before this market was created will not qualify. Subsidiaries, spin-offs, joint ventures and other entities created, owned or controlled by an existing company will not qualify as a new company; a role within one will count toward that existing company. Charitable foundations, nonprofit organizations, family offices and personal holding or investment vehicles will not qualify. A role at a company founded or co-founded by Jensen Huang after market creation will count toward “Founds new company.” An official announcement that Jensen Huang has accepted a qualifying role will be sufficient, regardless of when he formally begins serving in that role. If qualifying roles at more than one company are announced at the same time, this market will resolve to the company at which he takes the most senior role, with executive roles ranking above board seats and board seats above advisory roles. If a qualifying founding announcement and a qualifying role at another company are announced at the same time, this market will resolve to “Founds new company.” The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant company (including its regulatory filings), the relevant governance body, or Jensen Huang (including his verified social media accounts and authorized representatives); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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