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Trading ended on Apr 26, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 179 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
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Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
Final prediction market prices for "Which AI company will have the second-highest revenue April 20-26?". OpenAI last traded at 99.7%. Next is Anthropic at 0.1%. $22K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the model family that has the second-highest total estimated inference revenue based on Anera's data published at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family for the specified week. The week’s values will be determined by summing the respective companies' estimated revenue figures for each day within the specified period. If data for all specified days is not released by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. Entries labeled “Other” will not be considered a model family for the purposes of this market. Revisions to published data will be considered only until all relevant data for the specified period has been released. Model families will be ranked primarily by their total estimated inference revenue over the specified seven-day period, with alphabetical order of model family names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if two model families are exactly tied, “Anthropic” would be ranked ahead of “OpenAI”). This market will resolve based on the model family that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is data published by Anera Intelligence at https://anera.markets/intelligence/model-family. If the relevant data for the full period is not available by 7:00 PM ET on the second day following the final date, this market will resolve based on data available at that time. If this resolution source is unavailable, this market will remain open until the data becomes available and will resolve based on the first subsequent check.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.