The Prediction Markets

Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 57 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Rocket Companies (RKT) 42.5%

Next is Cheniere Energy (LNG) at 40%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Rocket Companies (RKT)
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rocket Companies (RKT)
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Astera Labs (ALAB)
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Astera Labs (ALAB)
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
Credo Technology (CRDO)
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Credo Technology (CRDO)
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
MongoDB (MDB)
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
MongoDB (MDB)
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Polymarket
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
HEICO (HEI)
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
HEICO (HEI)
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$868
Trade this on Polymarket
Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Medline (MDLN)
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Medline (MDLN)
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rocket Companies (RKT)
  • Cheniere Energy (LNG)
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?". Rocket Companies (RKT) leads at 42.5%. Next is Cheniere Energy (LNG) at 40%. $18K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets