The Prediction Markets

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Closed
Jun 30, 2026
Traded
$1.6M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
OpenAI
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$442K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$576K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alibaba
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
DeepSeek
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$282K
Trade this on Polymarket
Baidu
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • OpenAI
  • Meta
  • xAI

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?". OpenAI last traded at 4.4%. Next is Meta at 0.8%. $1.6M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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