What are the odds of Anthropic in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

Anthropic is currently priced at 70.9% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of OpenAI in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

OpenAI is currently priced at 15.9% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Google in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

Google is currently priced at 7.6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Moonshot in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

Moonshot is currently priced at 6.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Xiaomi in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

Xiaomi is currently priced at 6.2% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Meta in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

Meta is currently priced at 6.2% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of MiniMax in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

MiniMax is currently priced at 6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Nvidia in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

Nvidia is currently priced at 5.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Mistral in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

Mistral is currently priced at 5.2% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of ByteDance in Which company has the best AI Agent end of January??

ByteDance is currently priced at 4.8% in prediction markets.

Which company has the best AI Agent end of January?

Closes: Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded: $1.2M
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: 1 h ago

What the markets expect

Anthropic 70.9%

Next is OpenAI at 15.9%. The venues differ most on Anthropic (Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 77%), a 25-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

Anthropic

70.9%

52.5%

52¢ bid, 53¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

77%

75¢ bid, 77¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

53¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $189 (1.89x)

Anthropic

70.9%

Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)

Polymarket

Contract: Anthropic
Last price: 52.5%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 53¢
Sell Yes: 52¢
$100 on Yes pays: $189 (1.89x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Anthropic
Last price: 77%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 77¢
Sell Yes: 75¢
$100 on Yes pays: $130 (1.30x)
Volume: $278K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 53¢ and selling on Kalshi at 75¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

OpenAI

15.9%

21.5%

18¢ bid, 25¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

14%

14¢ bid, 17¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

17¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $588 (5.88x)

OpenAI

15.9%

Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)

Polymarket

Contract: OpenAI
Last price: 21.5%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 25¢
Sell Yes: 18¢
$100 on Yes pays: $400 (4.00x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: OpenAI
Last price: 14%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 17¢
Sell Yes: 14¢
$100 on Yes pays: $588 (5.88x)
Volume: $224K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Google

7.6%

15.5%

12¢ bid, 19¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

5¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Google

7.6%

Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Google
Last price: 15.5%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 19¢
Sell Yes: 12¢
$100 on Yes pays: $526 (5.26x)
Volume: $276

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Google
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $212K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Moonshot

6.5%

1.6¢ bid, 11.4¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

11.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $877 (8.77x)

Moonshot

6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)

Polymarket

Contract: Moonshot
Last price: 6.5%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 11.4¢
Sell Yes: 1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $877 (8.77x)
Volume: $375

Trade this on Polymarket

Xiaomi

6.2%

1¢ bid, 11.4¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

11.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $877 (8.77x)

Xiaomi

6.2%

Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)

Polymarket

Contract: Xiaomi
Last price: 6.2%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 11.4¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $877 (8.77x)
Volume: $377

Trade this on Polymarket

Meta

6.2%

Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)

Polymarket

Contract: Meta
Last price: 6.2%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 11.3¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $885 (8.85x)
Volume: $254

Trade this on Polymarket

MiniMax

1.1¢ bid, 10.9¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

10.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $917 (9.17x)

MiniMax

Polymarket 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)

Polymarket

Contract: MiniMax
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 10.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $917 (9.17x)
Volume: $348

Trade this on Polymarket

Nvidia

5.3%

1.1¢ bid, 9.4¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

9.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)

Nvidia

5.3%

Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Nvidia
Last price: 5.3%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 9.4¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,064 (10.6x)
Volume: $682

Trade this on Polymarket

Mistral

5.2%

0.6¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

9.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)

Mistral

5.2%

Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Mistral
Last price: 5.2%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 9.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,020 (10.2x)
Volume: $602

Trade this on Polymarket

ByteDance

4.8%

1.1¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

8.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)

ByteDance

4.8%

Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: ByteDance
Last price: 4.8%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 8.4¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,190 (11.9x)
Volume: $353

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 11 more outcomes

Tencent

4.3%

1¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

7.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)

Tencent

4.3%

Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Tencent
Last price: 4.3%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 7.6¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,316 (13.2x)
Volume: $734

Trade this on Polymarket

Meituan

3.7%

0.3¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Meituan

3.7%

Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Meituan
Last price: 3.7%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $648

Trade this on Polymarket

Amazon

3.5%

0.2¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

6.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

Amazon

3.5%

Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Amazon
Last price: 3.5%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 6.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,471 (14.7x)
Volume: $156

Trade this on Polymarket

Microsoft

0.4¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

5.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)

Microsoft

Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Microsoft
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 5.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,786 (17.9x)
Volume: $264

Trade this on Polymarket

Z.ai

2.3%

6.2%

1¢ bid, 11.3¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Z.ai

2.3%

Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Z.ai
Last price: 6.2%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 11.3¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $885 (8.85x)
Volume: $340

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Z.ai
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $69K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

xAI

Not listed

2¢ bid, 3¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

3¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

xAI

Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Kalshi

Contract: xAI
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 3¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,333 (33.3x)
Volume: $187K

Trade this on Kalshi

DeepSeek

4.9%

1.1¢ bid, 8.6¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

DeepSeek

Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: DeepSeek
Last price: 4.9%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 8.6¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,163 (11.6x)
Volume: $302

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: DeepSeek
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $97K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Alibaba

1.9%

4.4%

1.1¢ bid, 7.7¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Alibaba

1.9%

Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Alibaba
Last price: 4.4%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 7.7¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,299 (13.0x)
Volume: $308

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Alibaba
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $52K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

SpaceXAI

1.4%

1¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

Not listed

1.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)

SpaceXAI

1.4%

Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: SpaceXAI
Last price: 1.4%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 1.7¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,882 (58.8x)
Volume: $193

Trade this on Polymarket

Baidu

1.3%

2.1%

0.5¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Baidu

1.3%

Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Baidu
Last price: 2.1%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 3.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,778 (27.8x)
Volume: $400

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Baidu
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $16K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Moonshot AI

Not listed

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 h ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Moonshot AI

Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Kalshi

Contract: Moonshot AI
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $82K

Trade this on Kalshi

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Anthropic asks 53¢ on Polymarket and bids 75¢ on Kalshi (2200 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

Trading closes at different times: Feb 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes Feb 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Anthropic
OpenAI
Google

Live prices for Anthropic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 1h ago

Volume: $9K
Liquidity: $11K
Outcomes listed: 19
Trading closes: Feb 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi

Observed 1h ago

Volume: $1.2M
Liquidity: Not reported
Outcomes listed: 9
Trading closes: Dec 31, 2026

Trade on Kalshi

Paper trade

Practise on this market, risk-free

A free account gives you $1,000 of paper money to buy Yes or No at Kalshi and Polymarket's live prices, fees included, and track your results.

Sample

Simulated with paper money: orders fill in full at the venue's best price plus its taker fee; real orders this size could move the price. Not real money and not advice. Your portfolio

Big trades

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Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best AI Agent end of January?". Anthropic leads at 70.9%. Next is OpenAI at 15.9%. $1.2M has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Which company has the best AI Agent end of January?

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What the markets expect

Odds by venue