What are the odds of Anthropic in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

Anthropic is currently priced at 68.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Google in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

Google is currently priced at 19% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of StepFun in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

StepFun is currently priced at 19% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Tencent in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

Tencent is currently priced at 18% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of ByteDance in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

ByteDance is currently priced at 17.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Nvidia in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

Nvidia is currently priced at 17.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of SpaceXAI in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

SpaceXAI is currently priced at 17.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Microsoft in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

Microsoft is currently priced at 16% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Meituan in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

Meituan is currently priced at 15% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of MiniMax in Which company has the best AI model on December 15??

MiniMax is currently priced at 9.5% in prediction markets.

Which company has the best AI model on December 15?

Closes: Dec 16, 2026, in 34 days
Traded: $1.3M
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: just now

What the markets expect

Anthropic 68.5%

Next is Google at 19%. The venues differ most on Anthropic (Polymarket 25%, Kalshi 83%), a 58-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

Anthropic

68.5%

25%

10¢ bid, 40¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

83%

83¢ bid, 84¢ ask

polled, 36s ago

40¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $250 (2.50x)

Anthropic

68.5%

Polymarket 25%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 83%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)

Polymarket

Contract: Anthropic
Last price: 25%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 40¢
Sell Yes: 10¢
$100 on Yes pays: $250 (2.50x)
Volume: $121

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Anthropic
Last price: 83%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 84¢
Sell Yes: 83¢
$100 on Yes pays: $119 (1.19x)
Volume: $284K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 40¢ and selling on Kalshi at 83¢ nets 4300 bps before fees.

Google

19%

61%

44¢ bid, 78¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

4¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 36s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Google

19%

Polymarket 61%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Google
Last price: 61%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 78¢
Sell Yes: 44¢
$100 on Yes pays: $128 (1.28x)
Volume: $142

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Google
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $226K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 44¢ nets 3900 bps before fees.

StepFun

19%

— bid, 38¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

38¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $263 (2.63x)

StepFun

19%

Polymarket 19%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)

Polymarket

Contract: StepFun
Last price: 19%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 38¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $263 (2.63x)
Volume: $23

Trade this on Polymarket

Tencent

18%

— bid, 36¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

36¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $278 (2.78x)

Tencent

18%

Polymarket 18%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)

Polymarket

Contract: Tencent
Last price: 18%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 36¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $278 (2.78x)
Volume: $23

Trade this on Polymarket

ByteDance

17.5%

1¢ bid, 34¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

34¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $294 (2.94x)

ByteDance

17.5%

Polymarket 17.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)

Polymarket

Contract: ByteDance
Last price: 17.5%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 34¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $294 (2.94x)
Volume: $123

Trade this on Polymarket

Nvidia

17.5%

— bid, 35¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

35¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $286 (2.86x)

Nvidia

17.5%

Polymarket 17.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)

Polymarket

Contract: Nvidia
Last price: 17.5%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 35¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $286 (2.86x)
Volume: $80

Trade this on Polymarket

SpaceXAI

17.5%

— bid, 35¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

35¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $286 (2.86x)

SpaceXAI

17.5%

Polymarket 17.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)

Polymarket

Contract: SpaceXAI
Last price: 17.5%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 35¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $286 (2.86x)
Volume: $80

Trade this on Polymarket

Microsoft

16%

1¢ bid, 31¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

31¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $323 (3.23x)

Microsoft

16%

Polymarket 16%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)

Polymarket

Contract: Microsoft
Last price: 16%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 31¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $323 (3.23x)
Volume: $112

Trade this on Polymarket

Meituan

15%

— bid, 30¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

30¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $333 (3.33x)

Meituan

15%

Polymarket 15%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)

Polymarket

Contract: Meituan
Last price: 15%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 30¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $333 (3.33x)
Volume: $23

Trade this on Polymarket

MiniMax

9.5%

— bid, 19¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

19¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $526 (5.26x)

MiniMax

9.5%

Polymarket 9.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)

Polymarket

Contract: MiniMax
Last price: 9.5%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 19¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $526 (5.26x)
Volume: $18

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 13 more outcomes

Thinky

1¢ bid, 11¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

11¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Thinky

Polymarket 6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Polymarket

Contract: Thinky
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 11¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $909 (9.09x)
Volume: $43

Trade this on Polymarket

Xiaomi

1¢ bid, 11¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

Not listed

11¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Xiaomi

Polymarket 6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Polymarket

Contract: Xiaomi
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 11¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $909 (9.09x)
Volume: $43

Trade this on Polymarket

Z.ai

5.5%

19%

— bid, 38¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 36s ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Z.ai

5.5%

Polymarket 19%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Z.ai
Last price: 19%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 38¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $263 (2.63x)
Volume: $23

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Z.ai
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $70K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Alibaba

5.3%

18%

— bid, 36¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 36s ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Alibaba

5.3%

Polymarket 18%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Alibaba
Last price: 18%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 36¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $278 (2.78x)
Volume: $43

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Alibaba
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $53K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Baidu

5.3%

18%

— bid, 36¢ ask

polled, 7 min ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 36s ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Baidu

5.3%

Polymarket 18%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Baidu
Last price: 18%
As of: Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes: 36¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $278 (2.78x)
Volume: $43

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Baidu
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $16K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

Trading closes at different times: Dec 16, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle, source: arena.ai
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes Dec 16, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Anthropic
Google
StepFun

Live prices for Anthropic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 7m ago

Volume: $1K
Liquidity: $26K
Outcomes listed: 21
Trading closes: Dec 16, 2026

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi

Observed 35s ago

Volume: $1.3M
Liquidity: Not reported
Outcomes listed: 9
Trading closes: Dec 31, 2026

Trade on Kalshi

Paper trade

Practise on this market, risk-free

A free account gives you $1,000 of paper money to buy Yes or No at Kalshi and Polymarket's live prices, fees included, and track your results.

Sample

Simulated with paper money: orders fill in full at the venue's best price plus its taker fee; real orders this size could move the price. Not real money and not advice. Your portfolio

Big trades

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Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best AI model on December 15?". Anthropic leads at 68.5%. Next is Google at 19%. $1.3M has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Which company has the best AI model on December 15?

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What the markets expect

Odds by venue